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Makrofokus

Three persons on a terrace in the city.

Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi. 

Analyser

Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

All Nordic countries are falling short of reaching the green and social targets by 2030. Governance continues to be a strength of Nordics, but green and social investment is crucial for further growth.

21 november 2019: Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

Klimatet och kapitalet: Kina, Indien och gröna exportmöjligheter

Kina och Indien står inför en omfattande klimatomställning, samtidigt som det behövs investeringar för att hantera en hållbar urbanisering. Omställningen skapar exportmöjligheter för svenska företag och det är viktigt att politiken stödjer denna utveckling.

7 november 2019: Kina, Indien och gröna exportmöjligheter

Christine Lagarde - what can and what will she do?

In the short term business as usual with negative rates and QE. In the longer run a review of the monetary policy framework called for. 

29 October 2019: Christine Lagarde - what can and what will she do?

Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Market expectations, recent communication and slowing economy suggests another rate cut sooner rather than later. We change our call and now expect a rate cut in October – but uncertainty still reigns.

25 October 2019: Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Fed update: A committee divided

As widely expected the federal funds rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points.
The median dot-plot indicates no further rate cuts, but participants are divided.

19 September 2019: Fed update: A committee divided

Fed preview: Another rate cut is coming

A rate cut is widely expected in September
Recent development supports the idea of a 25 bps rate cut, not 50 bps.

16 September 2019: Fed preview: Another rate cut is coming

ECB update: Deeper into the wicked woods

Lower rates, open-ended asset purchases, adjusted forward guidance and TLTRO-III. This will have limited impact on economic growth and inflation.

12 September 2019: ECB update: Deeper into the wicked woods

ECB preview: Deeper into the wicked woods

Economic growth remains subdued, but not dire; inflation and its expectations remain muted. Market expectations leave little room for manoeuvre.

9 September 2019: Deeper into the wicked woods

Euro area: Quo Vadis R Star

Demographics and productivity are the main drivers of interest rates in the upcoming decades. Without an increase in potential GDP growth, interest rates will remain low and will have many unwelcome side-effects.

9 September 2019: Euro area: Quo Vadis R Star

Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

We expect a seasonally normal price decline, leaving the CPIF unchanged at 1.5% in August. This would be an outcome in line with the Riksbank’s latest forecast. Underlying inflation would rise by 0.1 p.p. to 1.8%, also in line with the Riksbank’s forecast.

9 September 2019: Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

Brexit: Hela havet stormar

Avtalslös brexit fortfarande möjligt men risken för detta har minskat givet de senaste dagarnas utveckling

6 september 2019: Brexit: Hela havet stormar

Central Bank Overview

Read the Central Bank Overview, which displays our central bank forecasts as presented in our recent Swedbank Economic Outlook, published on 27 August, 2019. It also includes a calendar for scheduled monetary policy meetings until end-2020.

6 September 2019: Central Bank Overview